Bangladesh Leadership Transition Risks to India Relations
The potential leadership transition in Bangladesh poses significant risks to the strong relationship built with India under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina since 2009. This relationship, grounded in counter-terrorism cooperation and shared economic and cultural interests, could be threatened, potentially affecting trade, connectivity, and ongoing discussions on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Bilateral trade, which reached $13 billion in 2023-24, relies on key exports like cotton and petroleum from India and readymade garments from Bangladesh. The FTA could substantially boost trade if fully realized. However, leadership changes may disrupt these gains, complicating logistics, connectivity, and diplomatic efforts between the two nations.
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