New US-Iran Nuclear Deal- Background, New Arrangements & Significance
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The US and Iran are reportedly working on a new nuclear deal, years after US’ exit from the 2015 JCPOA. Though the deal is more of a ‘good faith’ arrangement, it is expected to pave way for more sustainable bilateral negotiations between Iran and the global powers.
Background:
- The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (commonly called Iran Nuclear Arrangement) is an international accord signed between Iran on one side and several world powers (P5+1) on the other side- Germany and the P5 (permanent members) of UNSC (USA, UK, France, Russia and China).
- Under this 2015 agreement,
- Iran agreed to dismantle a large part of its nuclear program.
- It also agreed to open its nuclear facilities to extensive international inspections by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
- In exchange, it would receive sanctions relief.
- This deal was concluded with the objective of preventing Iran from proceeding with its nuclear weapons program.
- However, USA withdrew from this landmark deal in 2018, putting the arrangement in jeopardy.
- Following this development, Iran has resumed some of its nuclear activities.
- Its uranium enrichment program has reached 84%.
- It has stockpiled thousands of centrifuges.
- In the recent months, Iran and USA have been interacting to thaw the ties, including a readiness for a fresh deal on the nuclear issue. Following interactions with the USA, through Oman, the Iranian leadership called for a new nuclear deal, as opposed to the revival of the earlier deal.
What do the new arrangements entail?
- The new deal is to be an informal and unwritten ‘mini-agreement’.
- For Iran’s part:
- Iran to freeze its nuclear enrichment at 60%.
- The new deal has to ensure that the country’s nuclear infrastructure remain in place.
- The country has no interest in nuclear weapon.
- The leadership is ready to cooperate with IAEA inspectors.
- Apart from this, the country will also:
- Not attack US military contractors in Iraq and Syria.
- Not supply ballistic missiles to Russia.
- Release the 3 US citizens under its custody.
- In return, US is to:
- Refrain from imposing new harsh sanctions on Iran.
- Not seize oil tankers in the Gulf waters.
- Not pursue anti-Iran resolutions at the UN.
- Un-freeze Iran’s bank accounts, accounting for some $80 billion, in different banks outside the country.
- Allow the release of:
- $7 billion in South Korea
- $2.7 billion in Iraq
What is the significance?
- The new deal is being perceived as a ‘political ceasefire’. According to the US military, Iran is just months away from building a nuclear weapon. This is a source of concern as it could push Israel to take pre-emptive military action, with/ without US support.
- Another significance of this deal is that it could discourage Saudi Arabia’s nuclear aspirations as well.
- The deal could release millions of dollars in the shorter term, for Iran, especially at a time when its population is facing dire living conditions.
- It will also enable Iran to sell its oil in the global market more freely.
- The deal could also be used to improve the Iran-Saudi Arabia ties. Iran could also use this to expand its political and economic ties with China and Russia.
- This new move is also significant given the changing perspective in the US:
- Recognition that the JCPOA cannot be revived in its original form.
- Demand for a broad framework to address several issues regarding Iran:
- Iranian development of ballistic missiles.
- Iran’s ‘malign’ role in West Asia.
- The country’s support for terrorism.
- Recognition that sanctions are no longer effective in influencing the country’s responses to pressures from the US.
What is the way ahead?
- Israel isn’t expected to abide by the new deal’s conditions and Iran doesn’t expect long-term value from the deal either.
- Since this is to be an unwritten agreement, the US government will not have to seek approval from its Congress.
- Also, as it doesn’t entail a stop to the existing sanctions from the US government, the new deal is expected to face lesser political resistance.
- If this ‘good faith’ agreement holds, it could pave the way for more serious bilateral engagement on other matters of common concern.
Conclusion:
The US has long recognized the impracticality of reviving the JCPOA after the 2018-exit. With Iran’s reported progress with its nuclear program, there is a growing concerns over a region-wide conflagration. Hence, the proposed new deal, despite its informality, may prove to be a first step to thaw Iran’s ties with the West.
Practice Question for Mains:
How does the new Iranian nuclear deal differ from the 2015 JCPOA? Explain. (250 words)
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